The beginning of war and its effect on the market

The beginning of war and its effect on the market

February 28, 2022

There have been notable events in the past, such as attacks on America or invasions leading to occupations/wars, that have impacted the stock market. To learn what may happen to the market in the coming weeks, we can look to the past. This post will look at a handful of historical events involving attacks, invasions or coups and how the market reacted.

The following charts highlight examples of historical events and market movement as per the SPX. We’ll define “recovery” as when the SPX returns to its previous price before the initial event occurred. The initial event (shown as a blue dotted line) is the first incident date of an attack, invasion or strike.

The table below summarizes some notable historical events, days taken for the market to “recover”, and the percent change of the SPX at different days following the first incident date.

Of course, as I am writing this Russia continues its attack on Ukraine.

With strict sanctions being imposed on Russia by the global community, the repercussions will span beyond its borders and into the greater global economy. As many have noted already, these types of broad sanctions are unprecedented and have never been placed on a nation the size of Russia. The implications will only be understood in the weeks and months ahead.

In the meantime, here are some ways we can support the people of Ukraine right now.

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